Nkosana Sibuyi

Posted by Nkosana: 12 May 2009

Scenario planning, by its very nature, has a propensity to be agnostic or prognostic. It is hardly, at times, neutral. It diagnoses the postulated sequence or development of events for the possible future. They are not a prediction of the future. Scenarios help diagnose the possible choices to be considered, their implications, what should or ought to be done and the consequences that may be derived from the options or choices that could be considered. In a sense, scenarios planning or scenarios in general are useful for policy makers and planners in any evolving society. Ordinarily, South Africa, in its evolution and in finding a way into the future, has in the past explored a welter of state of affairs on the occasion of the Mount Fleur Scenario team in 1992.

At this time, premised on the macro economic futures for the country, possible scenarios were conceptualised, namely Icarus and Flight of the Flamingo. In sum, the defining principle of the Mount Fleur scenarios was such that it shaped the character and nature of South Africa’s macro-economic policy ushered in after the dawn of the democratic epoch. In essence, this gives a concrete expression that scenario planning does not happen in vacuum. It has a multiplicity of implications for a society that has embraced constitutional democratic governance as a loadstar.

In general, given the centrality of scenario planning, the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD) developed five scenarios for Southern Africa 2020 in 2002. The scenarios included amongst others, Danger! Ingozi!Kotsi, Market Madness, Poor but Proud, the Slow Slide and Regional Renaissance. From this standpoint, these trends, scenarios or features that are likely to play themselves out in Southern Africa may promote regional cooperation, diplomacy and the unfolding African regeneration. In a sense, the scenarios provided a scientific and empirical foundation for the context in which the region can build a better SADC region and the continent.

The dawn and celebration of the ten years of freedom also informed the state to conceptualise four paths or scenarios that will assist in reaching possible future destinations for South Africa and the world. The scenarios or possible paths identified were informed by the empirical and scientific key driving forces such as society, the nation, delivery, the economy, politics, values, youth, prospects, the world outside and tech-knowledge. On this basis, the four paths or scenarios identified were skedonk: It goes, but only just, Dulisanang: We’re all in this together, Shosholoza:on the fast track as well as S’gudi Snai’s: He who Benz the Rules, Rules the road.

In this context, the 2004 scenarios also laid a basis for the key driving forces that create the economic, social, environmental and political fabric that were identified, isolated and analysed together with the 31 forces ranked according to their defining centrality, significance and potential impact. In the book, Memories of the Future: South Africa Scenarios 2014, it was postulated that “our future is determined not by what we do tomorrow, but by what we do today.” In its epilogue, the book concludes that the question is not which of the scenarios is most likely to happen but how will the country react, if any one occurs.

As South Africa prepared to celebrate fifteen years of democracy, the Policy Coordination and Advisory Services (PCAS) located in The Presidency developed South Africa Scenarios 2025: The future we choose? Like many scenarios developed in the past, they are intended to assist in the identification of prospects, pitfalls, weaknesses, paths and options that may be considered or avoided in writing a script for the future.

This process of scenario planning also identified key driving forces that are likely to shape South Africa to 2025. These includes amongst others, resource constraints, shifts in global political power, shifts in global economic power, governance, social fabric and South Africa’s economic growth. The scenario planning process were premised or informed by three scenarios. These are Not yet Uhuru, Nkalakatha and Muvhango. All of these scenarios talk to divergent possible futures linked to accelerated economic growth, poverty eradication, skills development, building sustained strategic partnerships, centrality of governance and building confidence in the state.

From this worldview, the scenarios were building on the Towards a Ten Year Review and Towards a Fifteen Year Review. Organically and concretely, both reviews make reflections on the progress made in building democratic governance, service delivery, challenges or weaknesses to be addressed, as well as the confluence of major possibilities in crafting a better country, better Africa and better world.

Linked to the above, the Human Science Research Council also developed the Employment Scenarios to 2024. The scenarios are Growth Slows…Venuezuela, Chug Chug…Chile, and More activity in dynamic industries… Korea. These scenarios provide some thoughts, thinking and approach around catapulting the country onto a higher employment trajectory of sustainable growth and development. The dynamism of social change and transformation calls for the recognition of the defining role of the public service, private sector, public private partnership, civil society, cooperatives and the informal economy in job and employment creation. It is patently clear that, to achieve a sustained shared growth and development, the South African society should appreciate the challenges it inherited and the future it seeks to create. New ways of thinking and the adoption of the credo for the future should create a possibility for the oxygen to be allowed to flow into life changing circumstances to give meaning to the state of the state.

We have the distinct honour to proffer a catalytic model to the odyssey adumbrated earlier on. We need to underscore the need to be collective architects of the future rather than prisoners of the past. This will mark the harbinger of good times for the country. It bespeaks the triumph of laudable claims in a highly contested terrain.

The recent release of the Dinokeng Scenarios also provides a contour, lo and behold, for another template for intellectual engagement. They are robust, organic and trenchant. The scenarios provide a moment of renewal. They are a defining moment to address the variety of challenges that South Africa has to contend with in a rapidly evolving global environment. Notably, the scenarios are a product of contributions from the media, religious groups, business, government, various political parties, civil society, trade unions and academia.

The three scenarios are in broad terms, Walk Apart, Walk Behind and Walk Together. The reflections made in the Walk Together scenario are such that our central complexities, challenges, leadership and active citizen engagement are some of the catalytic forces that will propel the country onto a higher flight of growth and development. Without any equivocation, the scenario talks about the centrality of the developmental state, the state of the state and the society we need to build. It is crystal clear that the distinctions, definition and conceptualization of the developmental state are divergent and contestable. Although different tomes define the developmental state differently which means different things to different people, it tends to be treated as indistinguishable with state-led development.

This has the propensity to raise a variety of questions: What lessons can we draw from these scenarios? What have we learnt from the fifteen years of democracy experience? To what extent will the centrality of scenario planning assist us to build a country that we aspire to? What do we expect of these scenarios to deliver? How can we assist in ensuring that we deliver on building a better Africa and a better world?

In arriving at a strategic and focused denouement, we need to state the obvious in a manner that is intended to embrace the substance rather than appearance. That should be our reference point and should concentrate our minds. The scenarios are noble and honourable. In light of the current global economic meltdown, we need to use our collective strength and intelligence to shape and provide alternative routes to the future. In shaping the state of our state, we need to ensure that scenario planning becomes the orchestra of social change and transformative discourse.